| Description |
Accurately assessing current and future technological capabilities can provide organizations with competitive advantage. However, do accurate assessments become more difficult when technology progresses at a rapid rate? This dissertation examines the rapid growth of artificial intelligence (AI), its impact on organizations, and the human biases that impede accurate assessments of rapid technological progress. Given the magnitude with which AI is impacting organizations, the importance of accurately assessing technological capabilities is hard to overstate. However, I argue that due to the exponential growth bias (i.e., the tendency to underestimate exponential growth), people underestimate both how quickly AI has advanced and is likely to advance. Moreover, due to the motivated reasoning bias (i.e., the desire to search for and interpret information in ways consistent with one's desires), I predict people will reject the aversive implications of rapid technological progress, further impeding accurate assessment. I examine these phenomena through a series of surveys and experiments. |
