| Description |
This thesis applies Granger Causality Tests to balance of payments accounts of Turkey between the first quarter of 1992 and the last quarter of 2009, in order to test effectiveness of current account sustainability indicators that are derived by two major theoretical conceptions about current account sustainability. First theoretical conception is called "current account oriented views." That approach states that high and persistent current account deficits may be outcomes of some structural vulnerabilities of the domestic economy. Those vulnerabilities can arise from trade deficits, budget deficits, and saving-investment gap. Second theoretical conception is called "capital account oriented view." According to that approach, high and persistent current account deficits are the main outcomes of speculative-led economic growth and current account deficits which are induced by high capital inflows. Results show that the current account balance of Turkey is mainly driven by capital-financial account and portfolio investments subaccount, during postinternational financial liberalization era. Additionally, causal relationship between current and capital-financial account balances arises from causality from capital-financial account to goods and services subaccount of current account. Finally, according to test results, financial account oriented indicators are found more effective than conventional indicators. |
