| Description |
This dissertation is aimed at explaining the development of the Thai economy from 1970 to 2010 from the Marxian and post-Keynesian perspectives: in particular, how the nonfarm rate of profit in Thailand interacts with its balance-of-payments constraint. The theoretical core of this dissertation, constructed in Chapter 2, is developed from the extended Thirlwall's law, in which capital flows, determined by the rate of profit, play a role to drive economic growth via balance-of-payments expansion, and from changes of the rate of profit due to changes in the organic composition of capital, determined by flows of foreign capitals. The model suggests that the dynamic interaction between the rate of profit and level of GDP generated from capitals flows most likely results in cyclical movements of these two variables. The rest of the dissertation consists of empirical works on the Thai economy. The nonfarm rate of profit in Thailand from 1970 to 2010 is measured in Chapter 3, and the decomposition analysis reveals the factors behind its fluctuations. The results show that the organic composition of capital and the output-capital ratio are the factors determining the nonfarm rate of profit. The model in Chapter 2, in order to explain cycles of an economy, requires two preliminary assumptions. First, the balance-of-payments-constrained growth models can explain its economic growth, and, second, the rate of profit determines the growth rate of capital flows. Chapter 4 proves these two assumptions by using the Thai data. To prove the first assumption, the full course of Thirlwall's law test is done, and it is found that the extended Thirlwall's law is better than the original Thirlwall's law in order to predict the Thai economic growth rates. For the second assumption, the ARDL bound testing in Chapter 3 determines the growth rate of capital flows. Chapter 5 puts together the nonfarm rate of profit and the GDP level generated from the extended Thirlwall's law. The empirical diagram behaves quite similarly to the theoretical diagram presented in Chapter 2, so the theoretical core of this dissertation can explain the Thai economic growth. |
