Role of boundary and initial conditions for dynamical seasonal predictability

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Publication Type Journal Article
School or College College of Mines & Earth Sciences
Department Meteorology
Creator Reichler, Thomas J.
Other Author Roads, J. O.
Title Role of boundary and initial conditions for dynamical seasonal predictability
Date 2002
Description The importance of initial state and boundary forcing for atmospheric predictability is explored on global to regional spatial scales and on daily to seasonal time scales. A general circulation model is used to conduct predictability experiments with different combinations of initial and boundary conditions. The experiments are verified under perfect model assumptions as well as against observational data. From initial conditions alone, there is significant instantaneous forecast skill out to 2 months. Different initial conditions show different predictability using the same kind of boundary forcing. Even on seasonal time scales, using observed atmospheric initial conditions leads to a substantial increase in overall skill, especially during periods with weak tropical forcing. The impact of boundary forcing on predictability is detectable after 10 days and leads to measurable instantaneous forecast skill at very long lead times. Over the Northern Hemisphere, it takes roughly 4 weeks for boundary conditions to reach the same effect on predictability as initial conditions. During events with strong tropical forcing, these time scales are somewhat shorter. Over the Southern Hemisphere, there is a strongly enhanced influence of initial conditions during summer. We conclude that the long term memory of initial conditions is important for seasonal forecasting.
Type Text
Publisher Copernicus Publications
Volume 10
First Page 211
Last Page 232
Subject Atmospheric predictions; Seasonal forecasting; Boundary forcing
Subject LCSH Air masses; Long-range weather forecasting
Language eng
Bibliographic Citation Reichler, T. J., & Roads, J. O. (2002). Role of boundary and initial conditions for dynamical seasonal predictability. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 10, 211-32.
Rights Management (c)Reichler, T.J. and Roads, J.O.
Format Medium application/pdf
Format Extent 5,034,105 Bytes
Identifier ir-main,3867
ARK ark:/87278/s6x06rmb
Setname ir_uspace
Date Created 2012-06-13
Date Modified 2021-05-06
ID 706887
Reference URL
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