Punctuated equilibrium and the Patriot Act 2001

An all-encompassing theory to describe the policy-making process in modern political systems has yet to be determined. Therefore, no theory currently exists that uncontestably predicts future policy outcomes. In an attempt to describe the policy process and account for the process as one that fluctuates between periods of stasis and major policy departures, Frank R. Baumgartner and Bryan D. Jones developed the Punctuated Equilibrium Framework. The purpose of this paper is to determine whether the Punctuated Equilibrium Framework accounts for the policy-making process, and whether the framework has any predictive power, thus making a strong case for Punctuated Equilibrium as a theory. The utility and applicability of Punctuated Equilibrium is explored through the application of the framework to the development and adoption of the PATRIOT Act. This investigation applies a longitudinal study of the types of policies regarding national security and intelligence gathering leading up to the Patriot Act, and whether those policies followed the pattern described by the Punctuated Equilibrium framework. This framework describes long periods of policy stasis that lead to drastic policy departure due to exogenous factors that triggered a positive feedback response from the policy-making community. This paper will explore the foreign intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) in 1978 until the adoption of the PATRIOT Act in October 2001.